Blog 1: A rescue from years of football wagering AGONY.

The Roller
Aug 8
6 min read

Updated: Aug 12

The year is 2034. Its 11 a.m. on a Tuesday, and you rise from a morning slumber in your parents dingy basement. The glow of your triple monitor setup burns your retinas as you log into your only remaining account with a balance. Today is the day. You have just fired off a glorious 8-team multi-sport moonshot parlay featuring everything from Lithuanian ping-pong to Premier League soccer. This is the one. One time!!! You can feel it in your bones, or maybe that is just the mold in the drywall.

Adrenaline pumping, you decide to celebrate early by shoving your last $300 worth of XRP into a hand of virtual blackjack. The dealer is a disturbingly realistic AI who smiles in a way that makes you certain she is coded to ruin your life. You hit on 15 because why not, and pull a 5. 20 is good. We like 20. No sooner does miss AI draw out 6 cards to 21. She politely offers a sympathetic shrug that feels patronizing but oddly maternal.

Just then, the door at the top of the stairs creaks open. “Honey, breakfast is ready!” Mom calls down, her voice echoing through your fortress of unpaid bills and empty energy drink cans. You push your chair back, broke but undefeated in spirit, muttering under your breath, “Next Tuesday… next Tuesday is the one.” Somewhere, the soccer team you bet on is already down 4-0.

Introducing Low Roller...

Now, this isn’t me. Not exactly. But if you don't study the subject of wagering, it could be you. Always chasing “the big one” while your bankroll and dignity slowly evaporate. I’ve seen this movie too many times and I’ve lived the prequel.

I have wagered on sports since before you were born (maybe). I am not unfamiliar with the days of overseas accounts, with checks arriving from Korean furniture companies in the rare event of a cash out. I have lost money on all of the following but not limited to: NFL, NBA, NCAA, Nathan’s contest, Little League baseball, WWE, WNBA, NASCAR, F1, Golf, UFC, World Politics, price of Bitcoin, and on, and on…

I have read numerous books on gambling. I have listened to every reputable gambling podcast you can think of. I have paid for picks. I’ve seen so much, but cannot claim to have seen it all. And now I am sharing a foundation for beginner wagering.

Why do you care? If you are starting out, you will learn something valuable. Hopefully multiple angles to look into while keeping yourself out of big trouble. This blog will not cover 100% of what you need to learn and digest but it can help you go from sure losses to sustaining your bankroll. No promises and this is not financial advice. As the great wizard of BC once said, “If you hit confirm, you have no one to blame but yourself.”

A similar pattern repeats for nearly every new recreational bettor:

Start betting, hit a few confidence building wagers thanks to deposit bonuses or promos.
Confidence builds, bigger bets follow.
Absolutely horrific habits emerge.
Dig further and further, refusing to learn or adjust.
Conclude winning is impossible… still refuse to adjust.
Continue wagering indefinitely.

Don’t be that guy or gal. Here is a collection of ideas to help you not lose money (and maybe win some).

Section 1: WHAT NOT TO DO

THE MOST IMPORTANT concept: A lost wager avoided is more valuable than a win. Read that again.

Do not parlay. Not props, not sides, not totals, not anything. You don’t know how to parlay. Stop the drain and learn to wager elsewhere.
Don’t bet Saturday/Sunday mornings unless you are considering late-breaking info like injuries or weather. This applies to sides and totals. You cannot and will not beat a closing line.
Betting low $ units? Avoid full game sides/totals. Most content is geared toward this area but why bother? You’ll do better with props, live bets, or a number of other angles than trying to beat the largest market at low limits.
Never tease totals. Too much variance here. You want low variance when you tease.
No chasing losses. You won’t “get even.” You’ll go broke faster.
Keep bet sizes consistent. Ideally you should play 2-3% of your bankroll on each wager. There might be 2-3 bets per season where you go up significantly.
No futures. You will never hit one. They are fun until your worthless ticket sits in pending wagers for months. Odds/vig here is also terrible. Find other ways to play.
Disregard ESPN and all forms of network NFL shows. Get info from beat reporters and sharp bettors.
Don’t spray the board. Pick your 3–5 favorite plays each week.

Section 2: WHAT TO DO

Bet early. Most NFL/NCAA sides & totals should be placed by Wednesday. 90% of advantages will evaporate by Friday. If you are betting low dollars, you do not have to wait.
Use a rest/travel chart. Fatigue is a great equalizer. Drew Dinsick’s guide is a good one: https://x.com/whale_capper/status/1943369629310816670
Teasers are fine… sometimes. 6-points, 2-teams only, both games crossing 3 and 7, preferably in low total games.
Motivation is key. Look toward the more motivated team.
Follow touts if you must, but know why they’re betting. If you don't like the explanation, pass.
Research player props. Fantasy communities can give you an edge.
Know your key numbers. 3, 7, 10 against spread. For totals start at 44 and add or subtract 3 and 7. Be on the right side of these numbers.
Max out bonuses/free bets. Treat them like real money, not “fun money.” Same rules apply for wagering.

Section 3: Insight Ledger

Ask yourself: What do I know that the market doesn’t? What does person X know that the market doesn't?
Pick a small NCAA conference (like the MAC) and own it. Follow insiders, watch every game. You can find an edge here.
Coaching changes matter a lot. Many edges early in the season with teams that dramatically improved OR lost coaching.
Weather is a weapon. This could and probably will be a whole blog. Look at the wind before hitting confirm. Wind can force an automatic look to the under and/or stay away from QB/WR props.
FG props: check wind, 4th-down tendencies, and kickers.
Know who takes the ball or defers. Coin toss patterns can create advantages.
“Pros” bet narratives too. Some apply to the game, some do not.
Be careful of trends. Do you have a trend that is predictable and relevant to THIS game/team/player?
Trust your eyes. Numbers can lag reality. Every year teams move up and down power ratings dramatically. Be ahead of these moves.
NFL playoffs usually produce a double or triple back-to-back road team. Fade them with your largest against spread wager of the year.
Rest and travel disparities are impossible to quantify. Always look here for leans and tie breakers on a wager.
I can’t pick an NFC South game to save my life. You probably can’t either. When you find a team or conference like this, pass.
Conservative coach with a lead? Bet against them live. Bonus if your team can stop the run.
WR/TE with recent escalation in targets but projected at season long median yards...hit confirm.
Elite shadowing CB vs. WR or elite run D vs. RB. Look here. Bonus if game flow is likely to go against your WR or RB.
2 team moneyline parlays can give you a fun play that generally will keep you out of trouble.
Correlated same game parlays are ok. Not as easy to find as it may sound. Example: team X to win, team X RB carries over.
Division games are dangerous for favorites, especially the second matchup or while looking ahead to a bigger game.
If you want to throw up after you hit confirm, you might have a good wager. You will not always feel great about a good bet.
NCAA let down games are a real thing. Look to go against a team coming off a big emotional win. Less so in the NFL but at times you can find let downs as well.
Teams playing a very physical opponent or exhausting OT game often flop the next week.