NFL week 1
- The Roller
- Aug 8
- 4 min read
Updated: Sep 4
Week 1 NFL PICKS:
6 point tease Philly with team of choice (ATL, LV, DEN, HOU, BALT)
I cannot play CHI, DET, SEA, MIA. A number of coaching changes. DET in particular seems like a play on a 6 point tease but they lost DC/OC plus C/G on the offensive line. Also speculate Love was hurt majority of last season.
6 point tease DEN-HOU
J Williams ov52.5 yards
This will be one of his lowest totals of the year. Look for increase in targets in a contract year for JMo.
Breece Hall u48.5 yards
This is more of a play on B Allen cutting into Hall's time with Pitt likely playing the run hard early.
CHI-MINN 1H u21.5
Looking under here due to both coaches having a good reason to start off conservatively.
C Tillman (Cle) ov40.5 yards. Flacco, usage and Cincy defense here.
GAME THOUGHTS (my uneducated opinion):
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Thursday, September 4, 2025, 8:20 PM ET, NBC)
Would be surprised if Philly doesn't take care of business here given the Dallas coaching changes and general downward direction since Parsons trade.
Point Spread: Eagles -7 (Eagles favored by 7 points)
Game Total: 46.5 points
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Friday, September 5, 2025, 8:00 PM ET, YouTube, in Brazil)
LA or nothing for me.
Point Spread: Chiefs -3 (Chiefs favored by 3 points)
Game Total: 45.5 points
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET, FOX)
This game can go a number of different directions. 2 under rated offenses. I lean over 46, pass at 47.
Point Spread: Jaguars -3 (Jaguars favored by 3 points)
Game Total: 46 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET, FOX)
NFC South game so you have to look over if you can get 47. I like ATL in a tease here.
Point Spread: Buccaneers -2 (Buccaneers favored by 2 points)
Game Total: 47.5 points
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET, FOX)
Cincy has a new DC. They will continue to be terrible defensively. Cincy also historically terrible early in the season under Taylor. If Flacco starts I would consider over 47.5 or look for a live over.
Point Spread: Bengals -6 (Bengals favored by 6 points)
Game Total: 47.5 points
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET, CBS)
No feel for this game. Shenanigans will surely happen with Danny Dimes and road game Miami.
Point Spread: Colts -1.5 (Colts favored by 1.5 points)
Game Total: 47 points
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET, CBS)
You have a gambling problem if you bet this game. Find another angle in the props market. If I had to make a play, LV 3.
Point Spread: Patriots -3 (Patriots favored by 3 points)
Game Total: 42.5 points
Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET, CBS)
A lot unknown in NO. Not sure going fast pace is optimal with a rookie QB and horrendous team overall. Lean to AZ, look to AZ live.
Point Spread: Cardinals -6.5 (Cardinals favored by 6.5 points)
Game Total: 42.5 points
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET, CBS)
I can't bet on Justin Fields in his first game with a new team, especially against a strong coaching staff like Pittsburgh. Pass on game.
Point Spread: Steelers -3 (Steelers favored by 3 points)
Game Total: 38 points
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:00 PM ET, FOX)
If I see 7 I will hold my nose with the Giants.
Point Spread: Commanders -6 (Commanders favored by 6 points)
Game Total: 45.5 points
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 4:05 PM ET, FOX)
Everything situationally set up for Denver. Play them in a tease, play them in survivor, etc. Not going to lay -8 but will be looking to fire live at -5.5.
Point Spread: Broncos -8 (Broncos favored by 8 points)
Game Total: 41.5 points
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 4:05 PM ET, FOX)
Playing SF under 3. At full strength this team is not far off the top of the NFC.
Point Spread: 49ers -2.5 (49ers favored by 2.5 points)
Game Total: 44.5 points
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 4:25 PM ET, CBS)
The Lions turn over the majority of their coaching staff. They also lost an all world center-guard combo. Looking for more takes on this game but leaning GB 1H and game.
Point Spread: Packers -1.5 (Packers favored by 1.5 points)
Game Total: 49.5 points
Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 4:25 PM ET, CBS)
I don't like going against McVay and Stafford before the Rams inevitably get injured. If Hou 3 pops I will play it though.
Point Spread: Rams -2.5 (Rams favored by 2.5 points)
Game Total: 44.5 points
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills (Sunday, September 7, 2025, 8:20 PM ET, NBC)
What a great game. Pass on side/total and will look for props.
Point Spread: Bills -1.5 (Bills favored by 1.5 points)
Game Total: 51.5 points
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (Monday, September 8, 2025, 8:15 PM ET, ESPN)
New QB in Minny and new staff for Chicago. Bears are much improved although it might not matter against this defense. Both coaches start careful, look to 1H under.
Point Spread: Vikings -1.5 (Vikings favored by 1.5 points)
Game Total: 43.5 points
